21:32, 06.02.2009 — Новости
автор: OilWorld.Ru

DJ CBOT Soy Outlook: Up 10c-15c; Hot/Dry Argentina Forecast


By Andrew Johnson Jr.
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are poised to
start Friday's day session higher, as bullish Argentina weather forecasts raise
concerns about further yield losses in the southern hemisphere.

CBOT soybean futures are called 10 cents to 15 cents higher.

In overnight electronic trading, March soybeans finished 16 1/2 cents higher
at $9.96 1/2. March soymeal was $5.80 higher at $313.80 per short ton, while
March soyoil ended 33 points higher at 33.38 cents per pound.

After a sharp price break from January highs, the market is putting risk
premium back in the market amid outlooks for a return to hot/dry weather
conditions in Argentina next week, said Vic Lespinasse, analyst with
Grainsanalyst.com.

Technically inspired buying is expected to push prices above overhead
resistance levels, attracting speculative short covering, analysts added.

Weather will take center stage, as mixed signals from outside markets are not
providing any definitive influence in early action. However, traders are
expected to remain on guard for the rolling of index fund positions, with
pre-weekend position evening potentially limiting upside movement as the day
unfolds, analysts added.

A technical analyst said the next upside price objective for March soybeans
is to push and close prices back above major psychological resistance at $10.00
a bushel. The next downside price objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at this week's low of $9.34 1/2 a bushel.

First resistance for March soybeans is seen at Thursday's high of $9.87 3/4
and then at $9.94. First support is seen at $9.68 1/4 and then at $9.50.

The DTN Meteorlogix weather forecast said thundershowers during the past 2
days have helped to ease stress to Argentina crops. However, there is no
significant chance for rainfall in the area for the next 10 day days,
Meteorlogix said. In addition, it will likely become quite hot again by the
middle of next week and continuing to the end of the period. Should this
forecast verify, crops will come under increasing stress next week, Meteorlogix
added.

In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange
settled higher Friday, tracking broad gains in external markets, including
gains overnight in soybean contracts on CBOT. China's benchmark September 2009
soybean contract settled CNY50, or 1.4%, higher at CNY3,532 a metric ton.

Cash soybean prices in China's major producing areas were stable in the week
to Friday, supported by the government's efforts to shore up commodities
prices.

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange rose above MYR1,900
a metric ton for the first time in 24 days on fresh buying and spillover
support from soybean oil, but eased off on profit-taking. The benchmark April
contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR1 higher at MYR1,880/ton
after moving in a range between MYR1,854 and MYR1,908.

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