Аналитика цен по регионам на 24.04.2024
16:15 — Внутренний рынок
17:16, 02.04.2014 — Новости
автор: OilWorld.Ru

DJ Wheat Vulnerable to a Correction - Technical Analysis


MAY CBOT CORN, combined pit and electronic trading

May CBOT corn futures extended Monday's gains to close higher again on Tuesday. A positive market tone is seen in the wake of Monday's USDA report, which revealed that U.S. farmers intend to plant less of the grain than previously thought. Also, cold and wet weather conditions in parts of the Midwest could delay spring planting, which was also seen as a bullish market factor.

Technically, the May corn contract nearly hit its measured move target at $5.13 on Tuesday, before trimming gains into the final bell. The near and medium term trends are bullish for corn and the market has posted a bullish upside breakout from a sideways consolidation phase that trapped market action from March 10-March 28.

On the downside, chart supports are now seen at the old breakout points, which include $5.02 1/2, the March 7 high and $4.93 1/4, the March 13 daily high and the top of the old consolidation range. As long as those supports hold, corn bulls will be focused on higher prices.

Tuesday's action saw May corn rally to a fresh 7-month high intraday. A bullish target remains at $5.13, with another upside objective seen at $5.27 1/2, the Aug. 30, 2013 high seen on the weekly May corn chart.

Daily momentum studies are rising and either near or at overbought levels.

However, Hourly momentum is overbought and turning lower, which could usher in some "backing and filling" on Wednesday. The market is vulnerable to some short-term profit-taking and position squaring. Initial support at $5.01 3/4.

$6.76 1/2 -- the contract high

$4.89 3/4 - -the 10-day moving average

$4.87 1/4 - the 20-day moving average

$4.71 3/4 -- the 40-day moving average

$4.14 1/2 -- the contract low

MAY CBOT WHEAT, combined pit and electronic trading

May CBOT wheat retreated to a lower close Tuesday, pressured by weather forecasts for rain in parts of the southern Great Plains states. Dry weather has been a concern for the U.S. winter wheat crop and precipitation could ease dry soil conditions.

Technically, the market posted an "inside day," in which May wheat remained within Monday's high and low. The near term trend outlook is weak, however. The market posted a strong and steady rally through February and most of March, and wheat is now vulnerable to a period of downside correction, which appears to have started this week. Daily momentum studies have rolled over to a bearish position from previously overbought levels. The 14-period relative strength index is pointing down at 55% Tuesday. Look for additional selling pressure near term.

A minor near term top is seen on the daily chart at the $7.23 1/2 ceiling hit on March 20. Since hitting that high, May wheat had largely been consolidating sideways. The consolidation has resolved to the downside, which weakens the near term outlook. Initial support lies at $6.76 1/2, with a strong and more important floor at $6.69 3/4, the March 14 daily low.

$8.98 --the contract high

$7.02 -- the 10-day moving average

$6.83 3/4 -- the 20-day moving average

$6.42 3/4 -- the 40-day moving average

$5.53 1/2 -- the contract low

MAY KC WHEAT, combined pit and electronic trading

May Kansas wheat also closed down, with inside day action seen Tuesday. The major trend is bullish, but near term, a corrective downtrend is underway Minor supports lie at $7.48 1/4 and then $7.41. Major resistance remains at $7.99. Minor resistance lies at $7.68 1/2.

$9.40 - - the contract high

$7.76 1/2 -- the 10-day moving average

$7.54 1/2 -- the 20-day moving average

$7.11 1/2 -- the 40-day moving average

$6.05 -- the contract low

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Аналитика цен по регионам на 24.04.2024
16:15 — Внутренний рынок
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