May CBOT soybeans tumbled to a lower close for the second session in a row Friday. The market also posted losses on the weekly chart, after hitting a new contract high midweek. Soybean bears seized control of the market following reports last week that Chinese importers defaulted on purchases of U.S. and Brazilian oilseeds, triggering concerns that Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans could falter.
Technically, the action seen on the weekly May soybean chart is bearish. The market eked out a bearish reversal week, after hitting a new high and then closing down on the week. On the weekly candlestick chart, the action shows up as a bearish shooting star. Overall, the $15.12 ceiling hit on April 9 is now strong near-term resistance and could represent a minor near-term top for the market.
There is a strong band of congestive support from the daily chart in the $14.62-$14.56 area, and this zone will be important to watch early in the week. Daily momentum tools are turning down from overbought levels, which is a bearish position and could pressure the market for a test of support. If the $14.62-$14.56 support area were to give way, it would open the door for a more substantial corrective decline in the near term. Declines under $14.56 could open the door for a retreat toward $14.23, the March 31 daily low.
The primary trend is bullish for soybeans, and the market recently confirmed a breakout from a bullish continuation-triangle formation that targets gains to the $15.50 area. However, declines under support at $14.62-$14.56 would call into question the validity of the triangle target.
The market is vulnerable to further losses.
$15.12 -- the contract high $14.74 1/2 -- the 10-day moving average $14.49 3/4 -- the 20-day moving average $14.20 3/4 -- the 40-day moving average $11.29 -- the contract low MAY SOYBEAN MEAL -- combined pit and electronic trading
May CBOT soymeal plunged lower Friday. The market is retreating from last week's new contract high. The near-term chart outlook appears heavy and suggests the market is vulnerable to a period of consolidation or downside correction. The bears are targeting a test of support at $471.70, the April 4 daily low. That zone should be watched early in the week. If the market can stabilize and hold that support, it would be a positive signal. However, declines under that floor could open the floodgates of a corrective selloff, with next supports seen at $465.20 and $450.20.
Overall, for now, the primary bull trend remains intact. Resistance lies at the contract high.
$490.90 -- the contract high $478.50 -- the 10-day moving average $470.30 -- the 20-day moving average $458.10 -- the 40-day moving average $303.00 -- the contract low MAY SOYBEAN OIL -- combined pit and electronic trading
May CBOT soybean oil closed Friday lower on the day but higher on the weekly chart. For now, a very short-term uptrend pattern is seen off the recent swing low and important support at 39.85 cents, hit on March 31. Resistance lies at 42.96 cents, and the bulls would need to advance through that ceiling to open the door to a fresh rally wave, with additional targets at 43.72 cents, and a major ceiling at 45.05 cents, the March 7 high.
On the downside, watch support at 41.11 cents, the April 8 low. As long as that floor holds, the bulls will have the edge in the short term.
57.43 -- the contract high 41.70 -- the 10-day moving average 41.44 -- the 20-day moving average 41.81 - - the 40-day moving average 37.14 -- the contract low
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
29150.00 | + 700 | 29160.00 | + 660 |
ПФО |
27950.00 | + 300 | 28050.00 | + 50 |
СКФО |
28700.00 | + 500 | 28950.00 | - 50 |
ЮФО |
28150.00 | - 200 | 28950.00 | - 50 |
СФО |
28400.00 | - 100 | 28300.00 | - 200 |
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
71000.00 | + 850 | 73250.00 | + 1380 |
ЮФО |
69800.00 | + 200 | 74000.00 | + 3500 |
ПФО |
71000.00 | + 1450 | 73000.00 | + 2950 |
СФО |
72000.00 | + 1800 | 75000.00 | + 4500 |
Обсуждение