July CBOT soybeans slid to a lower close Monday, following last week's push to a fresh eight-month high. Speculation that the higher price levels could curb demand for U.S. oilseeds supplies weighed on the market on Monday.
Technically, Thursday's action etched a bearish reversal on the daily chart. That day, the market punched to a new contract high at $15.21 intraday, but then reversed to a lower close. The market remains under the influence of that bearish reversal early this week.
Overall, the primary trend is bullish. The soybean market has been climbing steadily since early February and the trend pattern is favorable. But daily momentum studies are showing signs of bullish fatigue and overbought readings. The market is testing support around the April 9 high at $14.90. Watch that area as a "toggle" point early on Tuesday.
Sustained gains above $14.90 would be a positive sign and would suggest the market is stabilizing. But sustained declines under $14.90 would be a weak signal and would open the door to downside correction. The next major chart support area lies at $14.44-14.45.
Bottom line? Trend is bullish. But, the bearish reversal and overbought momentum leave soybeans vulnerable to a correction or consolidation phase.
$15.21 -- the contract high $14.74 3/4 -- the 10-day moving average $14.50 1/2 -- the 20-day moving average $14.18 3/4 -- the 40-day moving average $10.54 -- the contract low JULY SOYBEAN MEAL -- combined pit and electronic trading
July CBOT soymeal also retreated to a lower close Monday, following Thursday's negative reversal day. The primary trend is bullish and the new contract high offers resistance at $485, but the market is showing signs of fatigue at the higher price levels. Monday's low at $470.40 offers initial support. Declines under that zone would be a weak signal and would open the door to some downside testing with major support at $461.80, the April 14 low.
$485.00 -- the contract high $471.30 -- the 10-day moving average $465.10 -- the 20-day moving average $451.70 -- the 40-day moving average $293.30 -- the contract low July SOYBEAN OIL -- combined pit and electronic trading
July CBOT soybean oil sank to a lower close as soy complex futures weakened across the board on Monday. For now, the minor near term trend pattern remains positive. Initial resistance remains at 43.95 cents. The bulls would need to rally the market back above 43.95 to target higher levels, including major resistance at 45.10 cents, the March 7 swing high.
On the downside, initial support lies at 42.74 cents. Below, there swing low support is seen at 42.01, the April 11 low. If 42.01 were to give way in the days ahead, it would break the minor uptrend pattern and turn the focus back to the downside.
57.43 -- the contract high 42.84 -- the 10-day moving average 41.98 -- the 20-day moving average 42.30 -- the 40-day moving average 37.14 -- the contract low
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
29150.00 | + 700 | 29160.00 | + 660 |
ПФО |
27950.00 | + 300 | 28050.00 | + 50 |
СКФО |
28700.00 | + 500 | 28950.00 | - 50 |
ЮФО |
28150.00 | - 200 | 28950.00 | - 50 |
СФО |
28400.00 | - 100 | 28300.00 | - 200 |
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
71000.00 | + 850 | 73250.00 | + 1380 |
ЮФО |
69800.00 | + 200 | 74000.00 | + 3500 |
ПФО |
71000.00 | + 1450 | 73000.00 | + 2950 |
СФО |
72000.00 | + 1800 | 75000.00 | + 4500 |
Обсуждение