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02:15, 28.08.2009 — Новости
автор: OilWorld.Ru

DJ CWB Lowers ''09-10 Price Outlooks For Canada Wheat,Durum,Barley (ENG)

WINNIPEG (Dow Jones)--The Canadian Wheat Board lowered  its price projections
on Thursday for wheat, durum and barley that will be delivered by producers
during the 2009-10 crop year, which began Aug. 1.

  The pool return outlook for most classes of wheat fell C$19 to C$28 from the
July estimate.

  The decline in the outlooks for wheat reflected the ongoing harvest
activities in the Northern Hemisphere and the generally favorable growing
conditions, the CWB said.

  The U.S. futures markets has also dropped more than 50 cents per bushel over
the past month, as harvest pressure and improvement in spring wheat conditions
added to overall supplies.

  Corn values were also pressured by improvement in the condition of the U.S.
crop, which in turn pressured wheat values, the CWB said. The ongoing
volatility of international currency relationships continues to add uncertainty
to Canadian dollar price outlooks.

  The CWB said August projections for world wheat production were increased by
the USDA due mainly to the larger crops in the U.S. and the European Union.

  The bulk of the European and Black Sea winter crop is now harvested, with
only a small drop in yields from last year's records expected. The lateness of
the U.S. spring wheat crop continues to present increased quality risks, but
yield potential is expected to be above average.

  In Canada, some harvesting of winter wheat has occurred, but a significant
portion of the crop is still vulnerable to yield and quality damage due to the
lateness of the crop.

  The CWB said that while conditions in the Northern Hemisphere have been
largely positive this year, conditions are different in the Southern
Hemisphere. Production potential in Argentina and Australia has been hurt by
recent dry conditions, the CWB said. Hot, dry conditions in north-eastern
Australia are causing a drop in yield potential, but the rest of the main
growing regions are still reporting reasonable production prospects.

  The outlook for durum was down C$27 to C$31 per ton.

  International durum values were pressured this month as North American
production is expected to be up from earlier projections, the CWB said. Prices
were also pressured by the completion of the Mediterranean region harvest.

  European crop quality has been mixed, with rains causing problems with
Italian quality. However, France, Spain and Greece are reporting mostly good
quality, the CWB said.

  Despite increased production potential in the U.S. and Canada, the total
durum crop is still expected to be slightly lower than in 2008-09.

  The quality of the U.S. and Canadian crops is still largely to be determined,
as less than 5% of the harvest is complete in both countries. The quality of
the North American harvest will play a large role in determining price movement
during the next year, the CWB said.

  The outlook for malting barley was lowered by C$18 to C$20 per ton while the
value for feed barley was down C$4.

  Excellent quality and above-average yields in Europe have pressured
international malting barley prices over the past month, the CWB said.
Increased supplies of European malting quality barley, combined with higher
global carry-in, have increased overall world supply.

  This has resulted in a significant narrowing of the spread between malting
quality barley and feed barley, especially for six-row.

  After a drier June and early July, Australia has received timely rains in its
key barley growing areas, maintaining expectations for a large barley crop this
year, the CWB said.

  Canadian supplies of malting barley are expected to be lower due to the
smaller crop. Harvest weather during the next month will be critical in
determining supplies of Canadian malting barley.

  As for feed barley prices, the CWB said that after a brief corn price rally
in early August, reports of a large crop have pressured Chicago Board of Trade
futures values over the past three weeks.

  In August, the U.S. Department of Agriculture increased its 2009-10 U.S. corn
production forecast by 4% to 324.1 million tons.

  Good harvest weather allowed Russia and Ukraine to finish their winter barley
harvest earlier than normal, and they are now well into the spring barley
harvest, the CWB said. Despite the tighter global barley carryout forecast for
2009-10, lower feed demand and adequate coarse grain availability have lowered
feed barley price expectations.

  Canadian production is a supportive factor, with Statistics Canada's first
production estimate of the crop year indicating that the 2009-10 crop will be
the smallest since 2002-03, the CWB said.

  The following are the Canadian Wheat Board's Pool Return Outlooks detailing
estimated payments to farmers for grain delivered during the 2009-10
(August-July) crop year, in Canadian dollars per metric ton, basis in store St.
   Source: Canadian Wheat Board.
                                       2009-10    2009-10
                                        PRO        PRO
                                       August     July
   1 Canada western red spring 14.5%   260.00     286.00
   1 Canada western red spring 13.5%   246.00     273.00
   1 Canada western red spring 12.5%   236.00     262.00
   1 Canada western red spring 11.5%   226.00     252.00
   2 Canada western red spring 13.5%   240.00     267.00
   2 Canada western red spring 11.5%   219.00     246.00
   3 Canada western red spring 13.0%   222.00     248.00
   3 Canada western red spring         208.00     235.00
   4 Canada western red spring         187.00     213.00
   1 Canada western HS spring 13.5%    246.00     273.00
   1 Canada prairie spring red         203.00     230.00
   1 Canada prairie spring white       203.00     230.00
   1 Canada western red winter 11.5%   215.00     243.00
   1 Canada western red winter         198.00     222.00
   1 Canada western extra strong       216.00     243.00
   1 CW soft white spring <9.9%        198.00     217.00
   1 CW soft white spring >10.8%       183.00     202.00
   CW Feed                             154.00     181.00

   1 CW amber durum 14.5%              260.00     291.00
   1 CW amber durum 13.0%              249.00     280.00
   1 CW amber durum 12.5%              246.00     277.00
   1 CW amber durum 11.5%              239.00     270.00
   2 CW amber durum 13.0%              239.00     270.00
   2 CW amber durum 11.5%              232.00     263.00
   3 CW amber durum 13.0%              222.00     252.00
   3 CW amber durum                    215.00     246.00
   4 CW amber durum                    198.00     229.00
   5 CW amber durum                    154.00     181.00

   1 CW barley Pool A                  154.00     158.00
   Select 2-Row CW                     224.00     245.00
   Select 6-Row CW                     206.00     225.00



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