19:09, 25.06.2008 — Новости
автор: OilWorld.Ru

DJ CBOT Soy Outlook:Up 10-14c On Wet Forecasts, Cash Strength


By Andrew Johnson Jr.

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are seen
firmer to start Wednesday's day session, buoyed by bullish weather forecasts
and strength in the cash market.

CBOT soybean futures are called to start the session 10 to 14 cents higher.

In overnight electronic trading, July soybeans were 14 cents higher at $15.15
and November soybeans were 12 1/2 cents higher at $15.03 1/2. December soyoil
was 48 points higher at 65.35 cents per pound and July soymeal was $2.50 higher
at $403.80 per short ton.

Forecasts for heavy rains to move through the Midwest and threaten previously
flooded areas once again will serve as the catalyst for an early bounce in
prices, said Vic Lespinasse, analyst with grainanalyst.com.

The rains threaten planting and replantings, as seeding soybeans at this
point is very risky yield wise, but prices are providing a valued incentive for
the risk, he added.

The DTN Meteorlogix weather forecast said the short range forecast continues
to look wet and possibly very wet as storms develop across the U.S. Midwest.
The long range outlook is a little more uncertain today as the US model has
changed somewhat. However, Meteorlogix is keeping the threat of more storms in
this region for the 6 to 10 day period.

Cash basis levels at the U.S. Gulf of Mexico jumped late Tuesday, rising some
15 to 20 cents, analysts said. The rise in the basis is sparking talk of fresh
demand and that serves to provide for a tighter short term supply scenario,
with transportation on the Mississippi River curtailed by high water levels,
analysts added.

Some interior basis levels have bounced as well, with farmers tight fisted on
old crop supplies.

However, a choppy two-sided theme may emerge once again, a CBOT floor broker
said. "With the end-of-the-month and quarter approaching, we may still see
funds lighten up positions and that should limit upside potential," he added.

A technical analyst said no serious chart damage has occurred on the market's
recent correction, but market bulls are fading a bit. The next upside price
objective for November soybeans is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the contract high of $15.66 3/4 a bushel. The next
downside price objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at this week's low of $14.73 3/4.

First resistance for November soybeans is seen at $15.00 and then at
Tuesday's high of $15.17. First support is seen at Tuesday's low of $14.80 1/4
and then at $14.73 3/4.

In other news, despite disruptions caused by repeated strikes by farmers,
Argentina's agricultural exports rose sharply during the first five months of
the year, according to a report prepared by the government and presented to
farm groups during talks Monday. Soybean exports from January through May
totaled 3.8 million metric tons, up 18% from the same period a year earlier,
according to the report.

China's Ministry of Commerce said Wednesday soybean, soymeal, soy oil, palm
oil, rapeseed and rapeseed oil importers should report details of their cargoes
to government departments and industry associations from Aug. 1.

The ministry said on its Web site domestic trading firms importing these
commodities are required to report under the following conditions within three
days -- signing contracts, shipping from the original ports, arriving at local
ports, as well as any changes of reported items.

In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange
settled slightly higher Wednesday on concerns over U.S. weather conditions. The
benchmark January 2009 soybean contract rose CNY25 to settle at CNY4,927 a
metric ton.

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended higher
Wednesday on the news that Indonesia will hike its export tax on CPO to 20%
next month, trade participants said. The benchmark September contract on the
Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended up MYR35 at MYR3,538 a metric ton.

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