01:10, 21.08.2008 — Новости
автор: webagro.net

DJ CBOT Soy Review: Rally Strength In Weather, Outside Markets (ENG)


By Rebecca Townsend

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures closed higher
Wednesday on support from outside markets, weather-related uncertainties and
unrest in Argentina.

September soybeans settled 26 3/4 cents higher at $12.93 3/4 a bushel. The
most actively traded November soybean contract ended 24 cents higher at $13
1/2, after trading as low as $12.76.

December soymeal settled $6.20 higher at $353.70 a short ton. December soyoil
finished 67 points higher at 53.85 cents a pound.

Traders noted the day's volume was thin.

"There's a market saying: Never sell into a quiet market because of lack of
liquidity," a CBOT floor trader said.

Outside markets also saw gains. The U.S. dollar, gold and silver were all up.
Crude managed a return to positive territory after higher-than-expected oil
inventories caused it to drop earlier Wednesday. The rebound added extra
support to grains and soy.

Though anticipation of scattered showers over the next few days fueled some
bearish sentiment, traders are generally cautious that tight fundamentals,
extended dryness and variable crop conditions would provide solid support.

"Soybean fundamentals are bullish," said Bill Nelson, an analyst at Wachovia,
on the soybean outlook.

Despite record prices in the 2007-2008 crop year, "soybean exports may reach
a record at 1.145 billion bushels," he added.

Analysts estimated export sales for the week ended Aug. 14 would range from
200,000-600,000 metric tons. Export sales in the prior week totaled 69,500
tons. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its weekly export sales
report at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.

"If the 2008 crop turns out much larger than expected, there is downside risk
to $11.50 (cash price), (but) uncertainty about the South American soybean
crops will support prices," Nelson said. "Upside price risk is to $15.00 if
weather, crop pests, or South American problems threaten production in either
hemisphere."

Argentina's farmers plan a large rally on Aug. 30, but no strikes have been
announced.

"The Argentina situation continues to keep support under our market," a CBOT
floor trader said.

In addition to questions about the reliability of immediate supply from
Argentina, lack of response to farmers' concerns over squeezed profit margins
provides a disincentive to soybean planting, he said.

Meanwhile, moving from central Illinois through Warren County, 2008 U.S. Pro
Farmer Tour participants noted an average soybean pod count of 1,315 in
three-foot-by-three-foot plots measured in four fields. The group noted dry
fields and one scout said a field with a relatively high pod count could vary
in yield by as much as 10 bushels depending on whether it rains soon.

On the western leg of the tour, participants noted consistent soybean plant
condition with high pod counts. Aphids and some bean leaf beetles were
observed, but the crop looks to be a good, average crop overall, scouts said.
But it was noted that the crop could use some rain in the next week to 10 days.

At 10 a.m. EDT Friday, Pro Farmer will release a crop estimate, which is
based in part on tour participants' calculations.

Elsewhere, widespread rains in the Delta aided soybeans, while the lack of
excessive heat is masking the extent full extent of the Corn Belt's dry
conditions, said Mike Tannura, T-Storm Weather president and meteorologist.

Scattered rains are forecast to hit the Midwest over the next few days, but
at around a half an inch, the showers aren't expected to fully replenish soils
and dependent crops.

Funds had bought an estimated 4,000 contracts.


SOY PRODUCTS


Soy-product futures followed the soybean rally Wednesday. Soyoil drew
additional support from higher palm oil prices, traders and analysts said.

December oil share ended at 43.22% and the November/December crush ended at
70 1/2 cents.

Speculative funds bought an estimated at 1,000 lots in soymeal, and bought
2,000 lots in soyoil.

Analysts expect Thursday's USDA export sales report to reflect 50,000-200,000
metric tons of soymeal and 0-20,000 metric tons of soyoil sold. Last week
96,400 metric tons of soymeal and 37,500 metric tons of soyoil were reported.


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