BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentina's crops continue to suffer from a severe
drought that is cutting estimated planted area seen going to soybeans, the
country's biggest crop, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said Friday in its
weekly crop report.
The exchange trimmed its area forecast to 17.75 million hectares for soybeans
this season, down from an 17.9 million hectares estimated last week and 18.2
million the previous week.
So far, farmers have planted 98.9% of the area seen going to soybeans this
season, 0.6 percentage point behind the pace at this time last year.
Planting and crop conditions are poor because of the drought, which is
thought to be the worst in decades.
So far this year, many parts of the farm belt have seen the lowest
precipitation in 47 years, with a reduction of between 40% and 60% from
historic averages, the exchange said last week.
While rain fell between Jan. 20 and 27, it wasn't enough to reverse a
situation of an "acute scarcity" of soil moisture, the exchange said. The rains
only partially alleviated the condition of the plants that have seen a gradual
deterioration in production capacity, the exchange said.
It added that rainfall is needed in early February to maintain current
production estimates.
The drought led the exchange last week to cut its 2008-09 soybean production
estimate to between 34.5 million to 38.2 million metric tons, or 17% to 25%
less than the 2007-08 season's 46.2 million tons. The U.S. Department of
Agriculture is expecting Argentina to produce a record 49.5 million metric tons
of soybeans this season.
Corn
With almost 100% of planting complete, the corn crop continues to suffer from
the drought.
Scattered showers with limited rainfall earlier this week failed to improve
yields. The rains will only give a minimum boost to production capacity of the
crop by fattening grains a bit, it said.
It estimates the area planted to the crop to be 2.38 million hectares this
season, less than the 3.2 million hectares in the 2007-08 season.
On Jan. 23, the exchange said corn production is seen plunging 33% to 40%
from last season. That would put production at just 12.3 million to 13.7
million tons. The USDA expects 18 million tons of corn to come from Argentina
this season.
While forecasts suggest rain could fall next week, it is too late to improve
yields of the corn crop, according to analysts.
Sunflower Seeds
To date, farmers have harvested 11.3% of the 2.12 million hectares planted
with sunseeds, 3.7 percentage points behind the harvest pace last year,
according to the exchange.
Production is expected to fall between 20% and 32% from the 4.65 million tons
grown last season, according to the exchange.
Estimates for Argentina's 2008-09 crop production in millions of hectares
(HA) or millions of metric tons (MT).
Wheat Soy Corn Sunseed
Agriculture Sec't 8.3MT 16.5HA 3.4HA 2.5-3MT
USDA 10.5MT 49.5MT 18MT 3.8MT
B.A. Cereals Exch 8.7MT 34.5-38.2MT 12.3-13.7MT 3.1-3.7MT
Argentina's historical production estimates in millions of metric tons,
according to the Agriculture Secretariat:
Wheat Soy Corn Sunseed
2007-08 16 46.2 20.5 4.65
2006-07 14.6 47.5 21.8 3.5
2005-06 12.6 40.5 14.5 3.8
2004-05 16 38.3 20.5 3.7
2003-04 14.6 31.6 15 3.1
2002-03 12.3 35 14.7 3.4
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
29150.00 | + 700 | 29160.00 | + 660 |
ПФО |
27950.00 | + 300 | 28050.00 | + 50 |
СКФО |
28700.00 | + 500 | 28950.00 | - 50 |
ЮФО |
28150.00 | - 200 | 28950.00 | - 50 |
СФО |
28400.00 | - 100 | 28300.00 | - 200 |
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
71000.00 | + 850 | 73250.00 | + 1380 |
ЮФО |
69800.00 | + 200 | 74000.00 | + 3500 |
ПФО |
71000.00 | + 1450 | 73000.00 | + 2950 |
СФО |
72000.00 | + 1800 | 75000.00 | + 4500 |
Обсуждение