DOW JONES NEWSWIRES Paraguay's economy is expected to contract sharply this year due to a sharp decline in farm trade, the local unit of PricewaterhouseCoopers said in an email to Dow Jones Newswires Friday. Gross domestic product is expected to fall by 4% in 2009 compared to a year earlier. If the situation continues to deteriorate, GDP could fall by as much as 5.4%, while an optimistic scenario could see GDP slip by just 2.4%, according to PWC. The decline stands in sharp contrast to the 5.8% growth seen in 2008 and 6.8% growth in 2007. The main reason for the decline is the sharp drop-off in farm sales, which are expected to be down 21% on the year in 2009. A brutal drought this season saw a large share of Paraguay's crops wilt. Production of soybeans, Paraguay's top crop, likely fell to 4 million metric tons, down 41% from last season, Luis Cubilla, lead analyst at Paraguay's grain export chamber, or Capeco, told Dow Jones recently. Paraguay, the world's fourth-largest soybean exporter, was hit by two periods of extended drought this season. The crops suffered from a severe lack of rainfall in November and December and a drought that started in February through April. Despite the dismal prospects for 2009, GDP growth is expected to rebound to a 4.2% year-on-year gain in 2010, with 3% growth seen in 2011 and 2012, according to PWC. Inflation is also seen slowing sharply this year, ending 2009 at 2% compared with the 7.5% inflation seen in 2008. However, prices are likely to start rising again when the economy recovers in 2010. Inflation next year is forecast at 7%, PWC said.
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
33000.00 | + 100 | 34000.00 | + 800 |
ПФО |
32500.00 | + 500 | 33000.00 | + 500 |
СКФО |
37000.00 | + 4000 | 38000.00 | + 4500 |
ЮФО |
36000.00 | + 3000 | 37000.00 | + 3500 |
СФО |
35000.00 | + 2000 | 37000.00 | + 3000 |
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
76000.00 | + 2000 | 85000.00 | + 10500 |
ЮФО |
76000.00 | + 3000 | 77500.00 | + 2500 |
ПФО |
76000.00 | + 2500 | 77500.00 | + 2500 |
СФО |
77000.00 | + 3000 | 78000.00 | + 2000 |
Обсуждение