08:20, 01.07.2009 — Новости
автор: webagro.net

DJ CBOT Soy Review: Old Crop Fundamentals Lift July Beans (ENG)


By Andrew Johnson Jr
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended mostly
lower Tuesday, aside from the July future that climbed on bullish old crop
supply and demand fundamentals.

CBOT July soybeans settled 11 1/4 cents higher at $12.26 1/4 and November
soybeans finished 2 1/2 cents lower at $9.81. In pit trades, speculative fund
selling was estimated at 3,000 lots in soybeans and 2,000 lots in soyoil.

July soy meal settled $0.90 higher at $412.30 per short ton, and December
soymeal ended $1.90 higher at $306.30. December soyoil finished 70 points lower
at 35.90 cents per pound.

Tight old crop fundamentals supported the front end of the market, with bull
spreads widening to new highs. The July future divorced itself from the rest of
the market on the tight stocks, able to ignore bearish outside market
influences, a cash connected CBOT broker said.

The July/August spread settled at a $1.07 cent inverse Tuesday, and the
July/November spread settled at a $2.45 1/4 cent inverse.

The announcement of a new 113,000 metric ton sale of U.S. soybeans to China
for delivery in the 2008-09 marketing year, kick-started the bounce in the July
futures after a lower start, traders said

Spillover pressure from limit-down corn futures, declines in wheat and
weakness in crude oil and equities weighed on the rest of the market. A
lower-than-expected acreage estimate provided light support, but the figure was
still record large, limiting its impact on prices, said John Kleist,
broker/analyst with Allendale Inc.

However, midday weather models showing the potential for a heat dome to move
into the central U.S. next week provided support to briefly support prices,
said Dan Basse, president AgResouce Co.

T-Storm Weather LLC said the latest GFS weather model keeps hot weather in
the central U.S. beyond late next week - a "heat dome" centered near Kansas,
western Missouri, southwest Iowa, southeast Nebraska, and Oklahoma around July
10-11.

U.S. 2009 soybean planted area of 77.5 million acres is a record high and a
2% gain over 2008, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its annual
acreage report. The USDA estimates harvested area at 76.5 million acres, up 3%
from 2008. If realized, this would be the largest harvested acreage ever for
soy.

SOY PRODUCTS


Soy product futures ended mixed, with soymeal gaining product share on
spreads amid tight availability of high protein meal supplies and strength in
soybeans. Soymeal bull spreads widened to new highs in step with soybeans.

Soyoil futures stumbled, succumbing to meal/oil spreading, spillover weakness
from crude oil futures, abundant stocks and heavy deliveries posted against the
July future, John Kleist said.

July oil share slipped to 29.67%, while the July soybean crush ended at 83
3/4 cents.


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