01:05, 30.07.2008 — Новости
автор: webagro.net

DJ CBOT Soy Review: Stumbles; Lacks Sustainable Weather Threat (ENG)


By Andrew Johnson Jr.

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended lower
Tuesday, stumbling on a lack of a sustainable Midwest weather threat, and
bearish outside market influences.

August soybeans settled 16 cents lower at $13.84 1/4 and November soybeans
ended 5 cents lower at $13.91.

December soymeal settled $5.20 higher at $369.50 per short ton. December
soyoil finished 152 points lower at 59.08 cents per pound.

The market set a new swing low for the current move, as weather forecasts
provided no indication of any sustainable heat risks in the Midwest, opening
the door for futures to trim premium from prices, said John Kleist,
broker/analyst with Allendale Inc.

However, midday outlooks pointing to hotter and drier conditions did manage
to put some edge on prices with end-user buying and technical support beneath
prices keeping futures hovering within a five-day trading range, Kleist added.

Midday weather models had a warmer bias for the Midwest and removed quite a
bit of rain for next week. However, looking at the big picture nothing has
really changed, with several days of very warm, humid conditions on tap for the
Midwest.

Weather models have shifted some rain out of the Midwest for next week, but
given the area's current moisture profile, the dryness should not be a problem,
said Joel Widenor, meteorologist with Cropcast Weather Services.

The heat and humidity should not adversely impact soybean crops, but heat and
dryness in the U.S. Delta and the fringe areas of the soybean belt is another
concern that remains an underpinning influence, traders said.

Nevertheless, a firmer U.S. dollar, weakness in crude oil futures and sharp
declines in Asian markets overnight set the stage for the losses, but November
futures did find chart support at the contract's pre-June flood highs, analysts
added.

In pit trades, buyers and sellers were scattered among various commission
houses, with speculative fund selling estimated at 3,000 lots.


SOY PRODUCTS


Soy product futures ended mixed, with soyoil continuing to lose ground to
soymeal on spreads. Soyoil futures tumbled to nearly two-month lows, succumbing
to spillover pressure from crude oil and overnight weakness in Asian vegoil
markets, analysts said. Meal/oil spreading remained a feature, with talk of the
potential for declining demand amid reports China will sell some vegoil
reserves weighed on prices, analyst added.

Soymeal futures ended higher, bouncing from earlier losses on end user
buying, technical short covering and spreading between the products, traders
said.

December oil share ended at 44.43% and the November/December crush ended at
71 3/4 cents.

In soymeal trades, buyers and sellers were scattered among various commission
houses.

In soyoil trades, buyers and sellers were scattered among various commission
houses, with speculative fund selling estimated at 3,000 lots.


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