BEIJING (Dow Jones)--Chinese corn prices have risen in recent weeks despite state sales as the government - the only significant source of domestic supply until the next crop hits the market in December -has refused to sell current stocks at a price below its own procurement prices. Prices have also been supported by expectations that the government won't let prices fall ahead of the next harvest. With recent government auctions setting what many consider to be a high price floor ahead of the harvest, China is unlikely to export much corn this year as international prices are below what Chinese exporters will need to pay to secure supply. The government sold 3.23 million tons of corn in the past four weeks at prices ranging from CNY1,490-CNY1,690/ton, helping push up spot price by 2% during the period, according to data from Changchun National Grain Trading Center. Spot market prices at China's Dalian port are currently around CNY1,710/ton or $250/ton, while global prices are around $205/ton, according to a recent contract signed by South Korea's Major Feedmill Group for 110,000 tons of U.S corn to be shipped in February 2010. "The current difference between local and global prices is too huge, and even if the government provides subsidies to exporters (it won't make much of an impact)," said Shen Wei, deputy general manager of the corn division of COFCO Ltd., a major corn exporter. So far this year, the government has issued a corn export quota of 700,000 metric tons but only 70,834 tons have been exported in the first seven months of this year, and most of it went to North Korea and Taiwan. Govt Retains Control Over Domestic Prices Last year, the government bought a record 35 million tons of corn from farmers, more than a fifth of a total harvest of 166 million tons, at an average price of around CNY1,500/ton. That was 4%-6% higher than prevailing market prices at the time. Even with the government offloading nearly 10% of that in recent weeks, prices have held up surprisingly well, analysts say. "Government sales didn't push prices lower. On the contrary they supported cash prices by setting a floor," said Wang Cheng, an analyst with Nanhua Futures Co. Market participants expect government sales to hit 10 million tons by October to make room for the new crop in state-run granaries. China National Grain and Oils Information Center, a state-supported think-tank, has estimated that Chinese corn production will rise by 3.5 million tons to 166.5 million tons this year, mainly because of higher acreage despite some weather-related hitches in the northeastern region earlier this year. The harvest typically starts in October but large volumes of corn won't reach the market before December because of high moisture content in the crop. Li Hongwei, a cash trader at Cerestar China Resources Maize Industry Co., said he expects the government buy corn from farmers this year at a price not less than the average CNY1,500/ton it paid last year. "Government's policies aim to stabilize corn prices at certain levels, and it will buy corn if prices fall too much after the harvest," said Ma Wenfeng, an analyst with Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Ltd. During a recent trip to Jilin, a major corn producing province in the country, Premier Wen Jiabao said the government will gradually raise procurement prices to encourage farmers to plant the crop again. -Zheng Xiaolu contributed to this story, Dow Jones Newswires; 8610 6588-5848; tracy.zheng@dowjones.com
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
30950.00 | + 1150 | 31200.00 | + 1200 |
ПФО |
30310.00 | + 1370 | 31000.00 | + 2000 |
СКФО |
31650.00 | + 2200 | 32000.00 | + 2000 |
ЮФО |
31500.00 | + 2250 | 32000.00 | + 2300 |
СФО |
32000.00 | + 2700 | 33000.00 | + 3500 |
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
73000.00 | + 1000 | 73500.00 | + 200 |
ЮФО |
72000.00 | + 2200 | 74000.00 | + 0 |
ПФО |
72000.00 | + 500 | 73200.00 | + 100 |
СФО |
73500.00 | + 1000 | 74900.00 | + 0 |
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